Drought Monitoring and Hydrologic Forecasting with VIC

About This Project

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is designed in part to improve the ability to predict the hydrologic cycle and energy fluxes at the land surface. Progress in the area of water resources applications has been slow, in part because of the mismatch in construct and spatial scales between land hydrology models and the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer Schemes (SVATS) used by weather prediction and climate models to represent the land surface. The GCIP-funded Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) has facilitated implementation of several land surface schemes and has produced over the same domain long-term retrospective data sets that can be used for model testing and bias correction. The GCIP/GAPP investment in LDAS facilitates the development of hydrologic nowcast and forecast products over the continental U.S.

This collaborative project, with the University of Washington (Dennis Lettenmaier, Co-Investigator) , has four main objectives:

Current Status

Our current focus is to develop a method for making ensembles that will have enough spread and accuracy. We are testing our method over the Ohio river basin and South Atlantic Gulf region at this time, but we expect to expend the forecast domain to the entire east-side U.S. as illustrated in the following map.

Acknowledgments

This research is supported by NOAA grant NAI7RJ2612 through GAPP .