Drought Monitoring and Hydrologic Forecasting with VIC
As of 2012/05/01, CFS forecasts are switched to CFSv2. Hover mouse on items to see more info.
Product/Date/Variable (click to change)
MonitoringVIC predictions forced with NLDAS-2 assimilated surface meteorological fields. validated for
ForecastInitialized with monitoring predictions at the beginning of the month, the VIC model makes hydrological predictions, forced with meteorological fields spatially downscaled, temporally disaggregated and bias-corrected from CFS(v2) model forecast, CPC outlook, and ESP forecast.   initialized  for

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Timeline (click & hover to change)
Preceding MonitoringHistorical weekly monitoring immediately before the forecast initiation. These monitorings may not be the most recent ones. The monitoring month here will change as the forecast initiation date below changes.
Forcast CFSThe CFS-base forecast uses all CFS seasonal forecast initialized during the previous month. For example, to make seasonal drought forecast starting from 21080801, we use CFS forecast initialized during 21080701 to 21080731 (62 members) to form the forecast distribution before applying the Bayesian merging method. CPCThe CPC outlook-based forecast uses the CPC output releases during the previous month as the forecast distribution for each climate division. For example, to make seasonal drought forecast starting from 21080801, we use CPC outlook released on 21080717. ESPEnsemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method is developed by the National Weather Service (Day, 1985). ESP uses historic meteorological data as an analogue for the future.
2015/10 0.5mo 0.5mo 0.5mo
2015/11 1.5mo 1.5mo 1.5mo
2015/12 2.5mo 2.5mo 2.5mo
2016/01 3.5mo 3.5mo 3.5mo
2016/02 4.5mo 4.5mo 4.5mo
2016/03 5.5mo 5.5mo 5.5mo

Monitoring from other centers:
 US Drought Monitor
 USGS Streamflow/Drought
 CPC Drought Severity
 CPC Soil Moisture
 UW Surface Water Monitor
 NLDAS Drought Monitor